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The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting By Alan Greenspan,

  • Title: The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting
  • Author: Alan Greenspan
  • ISBN: 9781594204814
  • Page: 274
  • Format: Hardcover
  • Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was How had our models so utterly failed us To answer this question, Alan GreeLike all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was How had our models so utterly failed us To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels Whether we re conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another Very often, however, we re steering by out of date maps, when we re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author s own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we canknow about economic forecasting and what we can t.The book explores how culture is and isn t destiny and probes what we can predict about the world s biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming.No map is the territory, but Greenspan s approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.
    The Map and the Territory Risk Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting Like all of us though few so visibly Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting No one with any

    One thought on “The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting”

    1. First, let me say that I greatly enjoyed The Age of Turbulence It was better than I had expected, mixing Alan Greenspan s personal story with an interesting finance story I gave it five stars, and consider it one of the best books I have read in the genre.Second, let me say that I am an actuary who is keen on books about finance, economics, etc so I have a high tolerance for dry or technical books I like regression analysis.However, I found this book very tough going The topics seemed to be of [...]

    2. Greenspan is a master number cruncher and his commentary on China s post crisis investment spending fuelled growth is a prime example of his skill.However, I take stock with his argument that economies benefit from lower taxes on high income earners Greenspan argues that because of their low spending as a percentage of income, their savings are large enough to increase their risk appetite and induce them to finance high risk ventures such as backing startups and disruptive technologies, which ar [...]

    3. As a globalized world found itself in a tailspin of malevolence following the unprecedented financial crisis of 2008, economists found themselves being brutally panned for either their inability to predict such a catastrophe or for being the mavens of undying optimism Accusations of employing mathematical numerical sophistry to camouflage reality and to view the global economy with rose tinted glasses literally symbolised the ironical title by which the subject of Economics is commonly referred [...]

    4. I enjoyed this one as much as The Age of Turbulence While the subject matter is heavy, I find Greenspan s style pleasant and entertaining This book is just packed with good stuff, and not a lot of filler fluff I learned so much All of our elected officials should be required to read this book, as it demonstrates clearly the long term effects of our economic and social policies Of course we all know politicians are interested in promoting policies that will make them popular in the short run, bu [...]

    5. Unless you are a macroeconomist or monetary policymaker, save your money Classic example of a very smart man with little common sense for how to communicate Poor logical flow poor metaphors the title is never clearly explained couldn t he find a better description than animal spirits stories inserted that had no relation to the point of the chapter etc I majored in economics and spent 30 years in the business world at senior levels, yet many sentences were literally unintelligible Where was the [...]

    6. Greenspan is a lazy thinker and a poor writer This book is full of excuses about why he and the financial analysts community at large missed the crash He takes no responsibility for his actions as one of the most powerful actors in the world in finance History won t judge him well.

    7. Not sure what the other reviews are on about, of course it s dry but not THAT dry It is Alan Greenspan after all Maybe it s because he confirmed my biases, such as being skeptical of China s long term viability economically And he includes some good scatterplots from World Bank and IMF research of Russia and China being a corrupt state About time people like him point out this most basic fact Though of course I disagree and or found his constant haranguing about social welfare payments are bad m [...]

    8. According to Greenspan we live in an age of entitlement He asks What type of society do we wish to live in One in which self reliance is the ethos, where government has little role aside from setting the legal conditions for political freedom Or, a society and government whose primary function is to entitle citizens with all forms of income transfers crafted to elevate the least privileged to equality of opportunity In short, do we wish a society of dependence on government or society based on t [...]

    9. I like economics, and I like books by practitioners, and I was SORELY disappointed by this book The book is so disorganized, not edited at all Exhibit 7.3 appears in Chapter 2 , and I kept on getting mad at individual headings and sentences that seemed out of place or unsupported I bet Alan Greenspan just typed this out in one go and knew it would sell, but also knew that his legacy wouldn t be judged on the basis of this book He may be right, but reading this book made me think less of him.I m [...]

    10. In his first book, Alan Greenspan amazed as the suddenly personable and accessible narrator of our nation s economic history and outlook But reading The Age of Turbulence will not prepare you for this book It s tedious and inaccessible, and it s never quite clear what the topic is I still have immense respect for the man, but I felt lost or in plain disagreement through much of this one.

    11. Why I Abandoned this Book in one sentence Because I haven t worked in risk analysis for thirty years, though it looked interesting.I probably would have given it 3 starsFollow me on Twitter Dr_A_Taubman

    12. Lo que ofrece este libro es el conocimiento, basado en apreciar al mundo de diferente perspectiva que el resto del mundo dentro de un segmento con enfoque econ mico Greenspan es conducido menos por la teor a, m s por datos y experiencia pr ctica, por lo que en este libro presenta una visi n amplia de la crisis financiera, la recesi n y la poca recuperaci n de los ltimos a os.A lo largo del libro, Greenspan hace referencia a la pol tica monetaria, fiscal, financiera, productividad, desigualdad y [...]

    13. The Map and the Territory can be boiled down to one essential question is Alan Greenspan Bayesian, and if so, how does the new data of the 2008 crisis affect his prior assumptions As an Objectivist, I share much of the same framework and agree with a good portion of the information presented within the text but unlike Greenspan, I have learned much from the 2008 collapse that shows the shape of his missing piece to be simple human fraud enabled by the deregulatory framework that has blossomed at [...]

    14. WHEW This was a challenging and arduous read reminiscent of a college text book Mr Greenspan did a wonderfully thorough job of making simple concepts extremely complex But then again, Mr Greenspan is considered by many to be the father of Fedspeak, intentionally wordy, vague and ambiguous statements used to prevent financial markets from overreacting to the Federal Reserve chairman s remarks Despite spending the vast majority of my working life in the business world involved in company operation [...]

    15. I was interested in the book based on Greenspan s interview with John Stewart of the daily show In it, Greenspan admitted he was wrong about certain things in the economy, specifically, the neoclassical assumption that all market players behave rationally, or accurately that the irrationalities are random and cancel each other out In the book, he acknowledges animal spirits, but does little do address it He critiques the Dodd Frank bill as most likely to create further distortions than the ones [...]

    16. I decided to listen to an audio copy of The Map And The Territory , Alan Greenspan s assessment of the impact of human nature on risk and forecasting for a break from my usual biography and history It is an in depth exploration of the 2008 and subsequent financial problems and why the economic models failed to predict developments.In this work Greenspan challenges the traditional model of the rational man who calculates his economic interests and acts accordingly He posits a new model in which t [...]

    17. This is a wide ranging book, filled with anecdotes, memoirs, and insights from psychology, finance, statistics, and Unfortunately, those disciplines do not converge, within this book, in anything but a superficial way Perhaps this is Mr Greenspan s attempt to open up the study of fiscal and monetary policy to other pertinent bodies of knowledge.As Mr Greenspan looks back at factors with lead to the Great Recession, he identifies Animal spirits The psychological aspects of money Liquidity Short [...]

    18. A dry book, and making few concessions to those with limited technical knowledge, this is not one to bring Greenspan s insights to the masses, but for those who are really interested and prepared to persevere it is a very clear and powerful statement of how he believes the US and global economies have got into the mess they are in now It is particularly strong on the various causes of the financial crisis some are political rather than financial and why businesses that are too big to fail drain [...]

    19. I think it s useful to learn how others view the world I have also wanted to learn economics, and I expected this book to provide a few lessons It does Most importantly, to me, Greenspan publicly acknowledged that the financial crisis that began in 2007 caused him to reconsider his economic beliefs, and I wanted to know what conclusions he d drawn.The book begins with what appears to be a detailed defense for the Federal Reserve s actions before the beginning of the financial crisis I found the [...]

    20. What I expected from the book was an old man s half apologetic half nostalgic view of the past, what I encountered instead was a keen cutting mind s inquisitive attempts at analyzing complex behaviors of crowds, paying tribute to old theories and trying new ones against new data it was all just surprisingly interesting, and intellectually stimulating Regardless of my personal questioning opinion of the man s action s when he wielded the greatest power of them all the one ring to rule them all , [...]

    21. I didn t really finish this, I just started skimming at the end Greenspan obviously a smart man and there is a smattering of interesting sections in this book, but you have to wade through a disorganized, run on text to find the good stuff It s sort of like conversations over a beer with Alan Greenspan where he pontificates on various issues, past and future, but doesn t really come to any conclusions In some cases his expertise is questionable, like in discussions about innovation and national [...]

    22. This is a pretty interesting book by a very interesting man The idea of such a free market individualist capitalist ending up being such a powerful figure in central banking history is a very odd combination In this book Greenspan attempts to explain the 2008 crisis using forecasting and statistical analysis, two things that obviously did not work to predict the crisis.He makes a lot of very big admissions of guilt, or at least oversights Overall he sticks to his guns that forecasting can have u [...]

    23. A bit scattershot I expected this to be primarily about forecasting, as implied by the cover and inside flap, but probably about half the text was given over to economic history and Greenspan s oversimplified anti entitlements policy position Some of the history was quite interesting, but the discussion of government spending on social benefits was hardly evenhanded and thus not particularly informative Fairly easy to read overall though, and did contain some interesting insights into financial [...]

    24. my three stars might be a bit generous because I respect the guy I just don t think this breaks any new ground or has a lot of answers and all the charts will drive u crazy I really think economics is much less complicated than it sounds the book is all over the place contradictory in parts welcome to economics and not that well structured regardless of whether u agree with him or not u cant help but think he is past it too academic and not really in the loop u still cant beat the big short as t [...]

    25. its hardcover book, so does the content and i have to read the age of turbulence i do feel discontent throughout reading the few chapter that deep and requires expanse detail of reading i love the correlation of saving, interest rates, budget, and investment that would for economist to forecast the contribution to GDP that should equals between deficits and surplus for a country and correlates economica and financial market segment in near future.

    26. OK, first let me make a confession, I didn t know anything about USA economics, the explanations behind 2008 economics crisis and USA economics phenomenon Thanks Mr.Greenspan for giving me such a chance to understand the topics above I have nothing to say about this book but only enormously recommendation to those who would like to study the topics above Trust me, read through the book and you will find my words not wrong.

    27. I was quite surprised at the low ratings on especially by those that claimed knowledge of economics This isn t so much a book of answers as a book of questions I guess I can understand the common complaint that the book seemed scattered and unfocused I felt that few points were fleshed out in great detail But if they had, this book would have run into well over a thousand pages, if not several volumes

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